RoydadNaft –  Bloomberg warned that stepped-up U.S. economic pressure on Iran could put at risk about 13 percent of Turkey’s natural gas imports, leaving Ankara facing a difficult choice between energy security and the threat of American penalties.

According to Roydad Naft, Bloomberg reported that Turkey — a key U.S. ally and Iran’s third-largest trading partner — could lose an important gas supplier if Washington follows through on threats against countries that keep doing business with Tehran.

Data from Turkey’s energy regulator show that Iran supplied about 13 percent of the country’s natural gas imports last year, or 7.7 billion cubic meters. That made Iran Turkey’s fourth-largest gas supplier after Russia, Azerbaijan, and the United States.

Bloomberg said Iranian gas continued flowing to Turkey after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began in late February, with only a brief interruption after an attack on the South Pars gas field.

Washington’s pressure puts Ankara in a bind

The report cited U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said countries that keep trading with Iran after an unspecified deadline could face American economic punishment. Bessent said the Trump administration wants to cut off Iran’s revenue sources and that President Donald Trump is contacting world leaders with specific requests.

Bloomberg described Turkey’s position as especially sensitive: Ankara has close strategic ties with Washington but still depends on Iran for part of its energy supply.

Turkey has kept importing Iranian gas even after a 25-year contract expired at the end of July 2026. Some of the volumes delivered after the contract ended were “make-up” gas that had already been paid for but not delivered on schedule.

The previous deal allowed for about 9.5 billion cubic meters a year. Talks on a new agreement had been under discussion but stalled after the war began. Turkey’s energy minister said in April that Ankara may still need the Iranian pipeline and gas flows to keep supply secure.

Iran-Turkey trade is still moving

Bloomberg also noted that two-way trade between Iran and Turkey totaled about $3.1 billion in the first half of 2026, down roughly 3 percent from a year earlier. That suggests U.S. pressure is not only an energy issue. Secondary sanctions could hit other commercial ties between Tehran and Ankara as well.

Turkey has long tried to keep relations with the United States and NATO while also maintaining energy and trade links with Iran and Russia. Stronger U.S. pressure could force Ankara to choose between Iranian gas and the risk of American penalties.

How Turkey could replace Iranian gas

Bloomberg outlined several options if Iranian pipeline gas is reduced or cut. The main one is more liquefied natural gas (LNG). Turkey has expanded LNG import capacity in recent years and could cover part of any shortfall on the global LNG market. The United States could be one of those suppliers. LNG is usually more expensive than pipeline gas, though, and greater reliance on the spot market would raise Turkey’s energy costs.

Another option is higher output from the Sakarya field in the Black Sea. Turkey has been developing the field, and more domestic production could ease import dependence. Additional Azerbaijani gas could also help in later years, but some of that new capacity is not expected until 2029 and would not fully replace Iranian volumes in the near term.

Storage gives Turkey a short-term cushion

High gas storage levels could blunt a short-term disruption. Turkish energy officials say storage is well filled and could cover part of demand if Iranian deliveries are interrupted for a limited period.

Storage is not a lasting substitute for an import source. If Iranian supply stays constrained, Ankara would likely need a mix of more LNG, higher domestic output, and other regional supplies.

Iran remains Turkey’s fourth-largest gas supplier

Turkey has worked to diversify its energy mix, but Iran’s roughly 13 percent share of gas imports means losing that flow would not be cost-free. Iran, for its part, counts Turkey as an important gas export market, with implications for Tehran’s foreign-currency earnings and its role in the regional energy market.

Bloomberg concluded that U.S. threats against countries trading with Iran would not hit Tehran alone. They could also squeeze Iran’s economic partners, especially those that rely on Iranian energy. Turkey, it said, would have to balance keeping Iranian gas flowing against the risk of U.S. economic penalties — a choice that could prove costly given Iran’s place in Ankara’s energy mix.

Source: Roydad Naft, citing Bloomberg