RoydadNaft –  Brent crude futures declined by 15 cents, or 0.21%, to $71.97 per barrel. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures edged up 3 cents, or 0.04%, to $68.72 per barrel.

According to Roydad Naft, oil prices traded slightly lower on Monday as concerns over rising global crude supply following the latest OPEC+ production decision outweighed geopolitical risk premiums tied to the Strait of Hormuz.

At its latest meeting, the OPEC+ alliance agreed to raise its collective oil production target by 188,000 barrels per day starting in August. The move is part of the group’s ongoing phased reversal of voluntary production cuts and is expected to improve global oil supply, although much of the planned increase has yet to reach the market.

At the same time, crude exports from Gulf producers have continued to recover. Saudi Arabia’s oil exports have largely returned to pre-crisis levels, while higher output from other regional producers has further strengthened expectations of increased supply. These developments have heightened concerns that the global oil market could move into an oversupply situation.

Despite improving supply conditions, geopolitical risks remain a key driver of oil prices. Market participants continue to monitor conflicting statements from U.S. and Iranian officials regarding the future security of the Strait of Hormuz and how the vital shipping lane will be managed. These uncertainties have helped prevent a sharper decline in crude prices.

ANZ Bank said that although oil exports from the Gulf region have increased, security concerns remain unresolved and could pose challenges to sustained export growth over the medium term. However, weaker Chinese crude imports, rising exports from major producers, and OPEC+‘s continued production increases have reinforced expectations of a supply surplus in the second half of the year. The market is now awaiting Saudi Arabia’s official selling prices (OSPs), along with pricing announcements from other regional producers, for a clearer assessment of demand conditions.