RoydadNaft –  Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has warned that global oil markets could face supply shortages within a few months if the war with Iran persists.

According to Roydad Naft, Alexander Novak told the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum that the market is currently operating with a significant supply gap of around 12 million barrels per day. Although previously accumulated stockpiles have so far helped mitigate the impact, this buffer may not last.

Referring to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) decision to release 400 million barrels from strategic reserves in early March — the largest such release on record — he said: “Thanks to those reserves and the fact that there was a surplus supply beforehand, the market has not yet fully felt the potential consequences. But if the war continues and production in the Persian Gulf countries does not increase, there will certainly be a deficit within a few months.”

Russia Sees No Reason to Increase OPEC+ Production

Disruptions to transit through the Strait of Hormuz following the American-Zionist aggression against Iran have sharply reduced oil production across the Persian Gulf, with most of the affected producers belonging to the OPEC+ alliance.

Citing OPEC data, Novak noted that Saudi Arabia produced 6.8 million barrels per day in April — 3.4 million barrels below its quota. Iraq produced 1.4 million barrels per day, 2.9 million barrels below its target. Kuwait produced 600,000 barrels per day, nearly 2 million barrels below its quota, while the UAE produced 2 million barrels per day, 1.4 million barrels below its quota. Bahrain produced 55,000 barrels per day, remaining 141,000 barrels below its quota level.

Despite these supply disruptions, Novak rejected speculation that OPEC+ is considering higher production quotas to compensate for lost output. He told reporters at the forum: “These issues are not currently under discussion.”

No Need for Broader Diesel Export Bans

Novak also acknowledged that Russian oil production has declined since the beginning of the year due to unscheduled refinery maintenance following Ukrainian attacks.

He stressed: “With the ramp-up of our activities, production will increase and return to previous levels.”

The Russian Deputy Prime Minister added that Moscow sees no immediate need to expand diesel export restrictions, although authorities may review the matter if conditions change.

Kremlin Seeks to Revive Energy Ties with Europe

Amid rising energy prices due to the imposed war against Iran, Russia is once again pushing for closer energy relations with Europe. Kremlin economic envoy Kirill Dmitriev argued that European countries need Russian oil and gas to overcome the current crisis.

Speaking on the sidelines of the forum to Agence France-Presse, Dmitriev said: “The world is on the brink of a very serious energy crisis due to instability in the Middle East. For Europe to overcome this crisis, it must find ways to cooperate with Russia and restore oil and gas flows from Russia.”

According to Türkiye Today, Russia has been under Western energy sanctions since the start of the war in Ukraine. Nevertheless, European countries have continued importing Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG).

In the first quarter of this year, the European Union imported more Russian LNG than in any period since 2022, making Russia the bloc’s second-largest supplier amid the war imposed on Iran. However, the EU remains committed to banning Russian LNG imports by 2027 and has rejected any easing of existing sanctions.