RoydadNaft –  American banking giant JP Morgan has warned that if disruptions to oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz persist until mid-May, crude oil prices could surge to more than $150 per barrel.

According to Roydad Naft, citing Reuters, JP Morgan stated in a note released on Thursday (April 2, 2026 / 13 Farvardin 1405) that oil prices could reach $120 to $130 per barrel in the short term. The bank added that if the disruption in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues into mid-May, there is a risk of prices climbing above $150 per barrel.

JP Morgan expects oil prices to remain above $100 per barrel through the second quarter of 2026.

The bank also forecasted that prices will resume an upward trend in the second half of 2026, driven by a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a return to more normal oil inventory levels.

JP Morgan emphasized that both the scale and duration of the price increase will play a major role in determining the severity of the broader macroeconomic shock. Sustained high prices, the bank warned, could reduce demand and raise the risk of a global recession.

Oil prices rose on Thursday amid volatile trading.