US natgas gains on short-covering ahead of storage report

U.S. natural gas futures rose on Thursday as investors covered short positions ahead of a weekly inventory report, but gains were limited by forecasts for less cold weather over the next two weeks.

Front-month gas futures for April delivery rose 5.2 cents, or 2.1%, to settle at $2.491 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

“It’s primarily driven by short covering from yesterday’s sell off ahead of today’s storage report,” said Robert DiDona of Energy Ventures Analysis.

Even though prices have been moving in small increments, “this is much less volatility than what we’ve been used to in the natural gas market,” Didona added.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly storage report at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) later today.

Analysts forecast U.S. utilities pulled just 62 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended March 10. That compares with a decrease of 866 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average decline of 77 bcf.

If correct, last week’s decrease would cut stockpiles to 1.968 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 36% above the five-year average.

Utilities have left more gas in storage than usual due to milder winter weather so far this year.

Data provider Refinitiv estimated 281 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks, down from 300 HDDs estimated on Wednesday.

HDDs estimate demand to heat homes and businesses by measuring the number of degrees a day’s average temperature is below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius).

Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide from 120.5 bcfd this week to 117.8 bcfd next week.

Meanwhile, Federal regulators approved the restart of two of Freeport LNG’s three liquefaction trains (Trains 2 and 3) in February and the third train (Train 1) on March 8. Liquefaction trains turn gas into LNG.

Gas flows to LNG export plants have been on track to hit record highs since Freeport LNG’s export plant in Texas exited an eight-month outage in February. The plant was shut due to a fire in June 2022.

When operating at full power, Freeport LNG, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, can turn about 2.1 bcfd of gas into LNG for export.

The seven big U.S. LNG export plants, including Freeport LNG, can turn about 13.8 bcfd of gas into LNG.

Week ended Mar 10 (Forecast)Week ended Mar 3 (Actual)Year ago Mar 10Five-year average Mar 10
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):-62-84-86-74
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):1,9682,0301,4511,594
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average23%21.5%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)Current DayPrior DayThis Month Last YearPrior Year Average 2022Five Year Average (2018-2022)
Henry Hub2.492.544.986.543.60
Title Transfer Facility (TTF)13.5513.9941.8140.5014.39
Japan Korea Marker (JKM)12.9914.236.9634.1114.31
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total ForecastCurrent DayPrior DayPrior Year10-Year Norm30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs281300222250256
U.S. GFS CDDs99161915
U.S. GFS TDDs290309238269271
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior WeekCurrent WeekNext WeekThis Week Last YearFive-Year Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production98.898.698.893.389.4
U.S. Imports from Canada7.87.77.99.28.6
U.S. LNG Imports0.00.00.00.00.1
Total U.S. Supply106.5106.3106.7102.599.1
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada3.12.72.73.43.0
U.S. Exports to Mexico5.55.65.45.65.2
U.S. LNG Exports13.213.113.612.77.4
U.S. Commercial12.714.013.312.212.4
U.S. Residential20.222.321.118.619.6
U.S. Power Plant30.930.829.825.125.7
U.S. Industrial23.624.324.323.223.6
U.S. Plant Fuel4.94.94.94.94.9
U.S. Pipe Distribution2.52.62.62.62.6
U.S. Vehicle Fuel0.10.10.10.10.1
Total U.S. Consumption94.899.196.186.788.9
Total U.S. Demand116.6120.5117.8108.4104.5
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel – EIA
Week ended Mar 17Week ended Mar 10Week ended Mar 3Week ended Feb 24Week ended Feb 17
Wind1412131515
Solar43333
Hydro67777
Other22222
Petroleum00000
Natural Gas3841403937
Coal1716151415
Nuclear1920202021
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
HubCurrent DayPrior Day
Henry Hub2.452.64
Transco Z6 New York2.272.61
PG&E Citygate6.936.92
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South)2.392.39
Chicago Citygate2.152.45
Algonquin Citygate2.483.15
SoCal Citygate8.157.35
Waha Hub1.441.25
AECO3.023.13
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
HubCurrent DayPrior Day
New England36.5037.25
PJM West29.5032.50
Ercot North17.2515.75
Mid C101.25105.50
Palo Verde47.7585.50
SP-565.0093.00
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