US natgas gains on short-covering ahead of storage report
U.S. natural gas futures rose on Thursday as investors covered short positions ahead of a weekly inventory report, but gains were limited by forecasts for less cold weather over the next two weeks.
Front-month gas futures for April delivery rose 5.2 cents, or 2.1%, to settle at $2.491 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
“It’s primarily driven by short covering from yesterday’s sell off ahead of today’s storage report,” said Robert DiDona of Energy Ventures Analysis.
Even though prices have been moving in small increments, “this is much less volatility than what we’ve been used to in the natural gas market,” Didona added.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly storage report at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) later today.
Analysts forecast U.S. utilities pulled just 62 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended March 10. That compares with a decrease of 866 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average decline of 77 bcf.
If correct, last week’s decrease would cut stockpiles to 1.968 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 36% above the five-year average.
Utilities have left more gas in storage than usual due to milder winter weather so far this year.
Data provider Refinitiv estimated 281 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks, down from 300 HDDs estimated on Wednesday.
HDDs estimate demand to heat homes and businesses by measuring the number of degrees a day’s average temperature is below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius).
Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide from 120.5 bcfd this week to 117.8 bcfd next week.
Meanwhile, Federal regulators approved the restart of two of Freeport LNG’s three liquefaction trains (Trains 2 and 3) in February and the third train (Train 1) on March 8. Liquefaction trains turn gas into LNG.
Gas flows to LNG export plants have been on track to hit record highs since Freeport LNG’s export plant in Texas exited an eight-month outage in February. The plant was shut due to a fire in June 2022.
When operating at full power, Freeport LNG, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, can turn about 2.1 bcfd of gas into LNG for export.
The seven big U.S. LNG export plants, including Freeport LNG, can turn about 13.8 bcfd of gas into LNG.
| Week ended Mar 10 (Forecast) | Week ended Mar 3 (Actual) | Year ago Mar 10 | Five-year average Mar 10 | ||
| U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -62 | -84 | -86 | -74 | |
| U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 1,968 | 2,030 | 1,451 | 1,594 | |
| U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 23% | 21.5% | |||
| Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2022 | Five Year Average (2018-2022) |
| Henry Hub | 2.49 | 2.54 | 4.98 | 6.54 | 3.60 |
| Title Transfer Facility (TTF) | 13.55 | 13.99 | 41.81 | 40.50 | 14.39 |
| Japan Korea Marker (JKM) | 12.99 | 14.2 | 36.96 | 34.11 | 14.31 |
| Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
| Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
| U.S. GFS HDDs | 281 | 300 | 222 | 250 | 256 |
| U.S. GFS CDDs | 9 | 9 | 16 | 19 | 15 |
| U.S. GFS TDDs | 290 | 309 | 238 | 269 | 271 |
| Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
| Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year Average For Month | |
| U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
| U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 98.8 | 98.6 | 98.8 | 93.3 | 89.4 |
| U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.8 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 8.6 |
| U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Total U.S. Supply | 106.5 | 106.3 | 106.7 | 102.5 | 99.1 |
| U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
| U.S. Exports to Canada | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 3.0 |
| U.S. Exports to Mexico | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.2 |
| U.S. LNG Exports | 13.2 | 13.1 | 13.6 | 12.7 | 7.4 |
| U.S. Commercial | 12.7 | 14.0 | 13.3 | 12.2 | 12.4 |
| U.S. Residential | 20.2 | 22.3 | 21.1 | 18.6 | 19.6 |
| U.S. Power Plant | 30.9 | 30.8 | 29.8 | 25.1 | 25.7 |
| U.S. Industrial | 23.6 | 24.3 | 24.3 | 23.2 | 23.6 |
| U.S. Plant Fuel | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
| U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Total U.S. Consumption | 94.8 | 99.1 | 96.1 | 86.7 | 88.9 |
| Total U.S. Demand | 116.6 | 120.5 | 117.8 | 108.4 | 104.5 |
| U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel – EIA | |||||
| Week ended Mar 17 | Week ended Mar 10 | Week ended Mar 3 | Week ended Feb 24 | Week ended Feb 17 | |
| Wind | 14 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 15 |
| Solar | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Hydro | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Other | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Natural Gas | 38 | 41 | 40 | 39 | 37 |
| Coal | 17 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 15 |
| Nuclear | 19 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 21 |
| SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
| Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
| Henry Hub | 2.45 | 2.64 | |||
| Transco Z6 New York | 2.27 | 2.61 | |||
| PG&E Citygate | 6.93 | 6.92 | |||
| Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) | 2.39 | 2.39 | |||
| Chicago Citygate | 2.15 | 2.45 | |||
| Algonquin Citygate | 2.48 | 3.15 | |||
| SoCal Citygate | 8.15 | 7.35 | |||
| Waha Hub | 1.44 | 1.25 | |||
| AECO | 3.02 | 3.13 | |||
| SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
| Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
| New England | 36.50 | 37.25 | |||
| PJM West | 29.50 | 32.50 | |||
| Ercot North | 17.25 | 15.75 | |||
| Mid C | 101.25 | 105.50 | |||
| Palo Verde | 47.75 | 85.50 | |||
| SP-5 | 65.00 | 93.00 |
