In its latest monthly report, the OPEC Secretariat maintained its forecast that oil demand in 2020 will exceed pre-Corona levels.

According to Reuters from London, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) adhered to its forecast that global oil demand in 2022 will exceed the level before the outbreak of the coronavirus, but at the same time stated: Tensions Moscow – Kiev and developments The outbreak of the coronavirus carries significant risks.

In its latest monthly report released on Tuesday (June 24th), OPEC predicted that global demand for crude oil would increase by 3.3 million barrels by 2022 and that the recovery from the 2020 recession would continue.

Russia-Ukraine tensions briefly pushed global crude oil prices above $ 139 a barrel in March, the highest level since 2008, and exacerbated inflationary pressures.

Quarantines to counter the outbreak of coronavirus in China have now slowed the growth of oil demand.

“Looking to the future, current geopolitical developments and the suspected outbreak of the coronavirus at the end of the second half of this year, OPEC still has a significant risk of improving forecasts,” OPEC said in a June report reviewing the previous month. is included in.

According to this estimate, inflationary pressures are likely to continue and the solution to geopolitical issues is highly questionable, however, the demand for crude oil in the second half of this year will be somewhat favorable.

OPEC expects global crude oil consumption in the third quarter to exceed 100 million barrels per day, according to previous forecasts, with an average of 100.290 million barrels per day in 2022, higher than before the outbreak. The corona virus will be in 2019.

OPEC kept its forecast for the global economic growth rate at 3.5 percent this year, adding that there was a significant downturn and that capacity for the uptrend was largely limited.

Oil prices continued to rise after the report was released, trading at more than $ 123 a barrel.

OPECPlus increment step

OPEC and non-OPEC producers, known as the OPEC Coalition, are now facilitating a production cut deal after an unprecedented drop in crude oil supplies during the worst period of the Corona virus outbreak in 2020.

At its most recent videoconference meeting on June 2, the OPEC Plus Coalition paved the way for further facilitation of the production cut agreement.

However, OPEC Plus does not have the favorable conditions to increase crude oil supply due to the insufficient investment of some OPEC members in oil fields and the recent decline in Russian crude oil production as a result of sanctions and the avoidance of European buyers from importing Russian oil.

The latest monthly report from the OPEC Secretariat showed that this trend continued in May, stating that the production of OPEC members fell by 286 thousand barrels to 28 million 510 thousand barrels per day due to the drop in supply from Libya, Nigeria and other countries. .

OPEC predicts that the increase in crude oil supply of non-OPEC producers in 2022, by 300 thousand barrels, compared to the previous estimate, will be 2 million and 100 thousand barrels.

In its latest report (June), OPEC cut its forecast for Russian production by 250,000 barrels per day, keeping the estimate of US production growth stable.

OPEC expects US oil production to increase by 880,000 barrels per day in 2022, unchanged from last month’s estimate, despite high prices that have encouraged increased supply in recent years.

Provided by: MohammadSadegh Razmi