RoydadNaft –  While global crude benchmarks languish, Canadian oil and gas stocks are enjoying a remarkable renaissance, powered by surging American investment, the long-awaited Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, and rock-bottom breakeven costs in the oil sands.

New data show U.S. funds now own roughly 59% of the Canadian oil and gas sector, up from 56% at the end of 2024, while domestic Canadian ownership has slipped to 34%. For some producers the shift is even more pronounced: U.S. investors have doubled their stake in Tamarack Valley Energy to 40% since the pandemic and now hold nearly two-thirds of Whitecap Resources.

The bullish sentiment has translated into eye-catching returns. Year-to-date through late 2025, the S&P/TSX Energy Index has climbed 19.5%, more than triple the 6.0% gain posted by the S&P 500 Energy Index.

Several tailwinds are driving the outperformance:

•  A marked shift in federal policy under Prime Minister Mark Carney, who has pledged to position Canada as an “energy superpower” in contrast to the previous Trudeau government’s heavier emphasis on decarbonization and Arctic drilling moratoriums.

•  The Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX), now operating at approximately 82% of its 890,000 bbl/d nameplate capacity since coming online in May 2024, providing western Canadian producers with badly needed access to tidewater and Asian markets.

•  Oil-sands breakeven costs that remain highly competitive globally — averaging $40–$57 per barrel for full-cycle projects and as low as $18–$45 on a half-cycle basis — thanks to technological advances and deleveraged balance sheets.

Standout performers in 2025 include:

•  Falcon Oil & Gas (up 147.2% YTD), propelled by rapid drilling progress in Australia’s Beetaloo Basin and a new strategic investment in Nigeria.

•  Tamarack Valley Energy (up 66.0%), benefiting from its low-cost Clearwater assets and aggressive share repurchases.

•  Imperial Oil (up 61.9%), which posted its highest quarterly upstream production in over thirty years, led by record output at the Kearl oil-sands mine.

Even as WTI and Brent hover well below recent peaks, the combination of political support, infrastructure breakthroughs, and structural cost advantages has turned Canada’s energy patch into one of the few bright spots in a subdued global oil market.