RoydadNaft –  OPEC+, the powerhouse alliance controlling half the world’s oil supply, is poised to freeze production hikes in the first quarter of 2026 at its virtual summit on Sunday, three delegates revealed to Reuters, dialing back ambitions to claw back market share as a potential supply flood looms large.

The decision, set against Brent crude’s slide to $63 per barrel—a 15% yearly plunge—marks a pragmatic pivot for the 23-nation bloc, including OPEC heavyweights like Saudi Arabia and allies such as Russia. Eight key members, fresh off pausing increases last month, are expected to extend that restraint through March, sources said, citing jittery markets buffeted by whispers of a Russia-Ukraine truce that could unleash even more crude.

Kicking off at 1300 GMT, the online huddle will see the core eight—Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman—stick to their playbook, forgoing the 137,000 barrels-per-day bumps they’ve doled out monthly since October. This comes after a gradual unwind of deep 2023 cuts that once shaved 5.85 million bpd, or nearly 6% of global output, from the market. From April to December, they’ve already dialed up targets by 2.9 million bpd, but delegates say the brakes are essential to avert a “looming supply glut.”

In a parallel session, the full OPEC+ lineup is slated to rubber-stamp a long-awaited formula for gauging members’ max production capacities—a benchmark OPEC floated in May for 2027 baselines. No tweaks to 2026 group-wide quotas are on the table, other insiders confirmed this week, underscoring a “wait-and-see” vibe amid sanctions squeezing Russia’s ramp-up and broader economic headwinds.

OPEC+ has wrestled with capacity quotas for years, a thorny issue in balancing output against surging non-OPEC rivals like U.S. shale drillers. The pause extends a cautious thaw started in April, when hikes resumed to recapture lost ground, but delegates warn of overreach. “We’re moderating to protect stability,” one source quipped, echoing fears that unchecked flows could crater prices further.

As the alliance convenes, eyes are on Riyadh and Moscow: Saudi Arabia, flush with spare capacity, has pushed for bolder gains, while Russia grapples with Western curbs. For now, the steady hand prevails— a lifeline for prices, but a signal that OPEC+’s market-share crusade is hitting speed bumps.