RoydadNaft –  India’s import of Russian crude oil declined by 13.2% to 1.39 million barrels per day in December against 1.61 million barrels per day in November, data from Vortexa showed. However, Russia remained the largest crude supplier to the country in December accounting for 31% of India’s total crude oil imports.

The country’s overall crude oil imports increased by  almost 4% to 4.46 million barrels per day month over month in December, with higher crude imports from Iraq offsetting the decline in imports from Russia.

“In December, the top five supplies included Russia, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Angola, with Angola overtaking the United States as the fifth largest crude supplier,” said Xavier Tang, market analyst at Vortexa. “Indian refiners turned towards African and Middle Eastern producers for crude as Russian crude exports fell.”

While the share of crude oil sourced from Russia and Saudi Arabia, the two traditional oil suppliers to the country, fell in December, the share of crude imports from the United Arab Emirates and Iraq increased.

Iraq’s share of Indian imports increased to 23% this month, up from 16% last month. Imports from Iraq increased by 48.3% on month to 1.03 million barrels per day last month, as per the data. Imports from Saudi Arabia fell by 8% to 573,523 barrels per day last month from 624,605 barrels per day in November.

“Given the discounts for Russian barrels over the Middle Eastern counterparts, India will continue to prioritise importing crude oil from Russia,” Tang said. “However, with the recent reduction in Middle Eastern crude official selling prices, India will likely supplement any shortfall in Russian supplies with Middle Eastern crude grades,” he added.

India’s crude imports are also dependent on the country’s domestic oil demand and export margins.

Meanwhile, the country’s crude imports from the US is likely to remain unaffected under the new administration, analysts say. US domestic production is projected to increase next year, as part of the new drilled and completed wells coming online.

“The US incoming president, Donald Trump, has announced that he intends to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. This would greatly increase the cost of Canadian heavy crudes which are transported via pipeline into the US, of which, some are exported to India. With the new import tariffs, Canadian heavy crude will almost be economically unattractive to Indian refiners, as such, we could expect to see lower exports of these crudes from the US Gulf to India,” said Tang. “The mainstream US crude will likely remain unaffected, and their exports to India will still be driven by economics.”

While Trump has announced that he plans to expedit drilling permits on federal land, analysts at Vortexa believe that this would have limited impact on US crude production in the near-term.

According to the data, India’s private refiners bought 1.68 million barrels of crude oil per day in December while public downstream companies imported 2.78 million barrels of crude oil accounting for 62% of the total imports.

India’s oil demand growth rate is now expected to surpass China’s, making it one of the fastest-growing consumption centres, prompting the country’s refiners to accelerate expansion plans and widen crude diversification, as per S&P Global Commodity Insights.

“In 2025, India is forecast to deliver a relatively faster growth in oil demand of 3.2%, compared with China’s 1.7%,” said Kang Wu, global head of macro and oil demand research at S&P Global Commodity Insights.

As India’s refining capacity is set to rise, refiners and policymakers are intensifying efforts to diversify the crude import basket to reduce overdependence on a few supplying countries or regions.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Guyana has bolstered expectations that the country’s refiners are nearing long-term crude oil import agreements with the relatively new South American supplier, S&P said.

“Recent diplomatic visits will help bring in crude oil from Africa and Latin America, but the growth in absolute volume would depend on the overall crude market,” said Abhishek Ranjan, South Asia oil research lead at S&P Global Commodity Insights.

“The share of Middle Eastern crude shipments to India’s basket is likely to drop by a few percentage points due to the diversification of import sources. But, overall, the crude grades in India’s import basket are expected to remain medium grades and we don’t anticipate a significant drop in share of sour crude in 2025,” Ranjan added.

India, which imports as much as 85% of its needs, has said that it will continue buying oil from the cheapest available sources to meet growing demand, with Russian oil falling in that category due to attractive discounts.

The country’s dependency on import of crude oil during April to November of the current fiscal rose to 88.1%, up from 87.6% in the corresponding period of FY24 amid rising demand and stagnant domestic production, as per data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell.