RoydadNaft –  Oil prices dropped on Tuesday due to expectations of abundant global supply amid weak demand, as well as the market’s assessment of prospects for higher Venezuelan crude production following the U.S. arrest of President Nicolás Maduro.

According to Roydad Naft, Brent crude futures fell 0.5 percent, or 28 cents, to $61.48 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 0.6 percent, or 32 cents, to $58.00 per barrel (as of 0735 GMT).

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Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at brokerage Phillip Nova, noted that the oil price response to major geopolitical events—such as the U.S. military action in Venezuela and ongoing strikes on Russian energy infrastructure—has been surprisingly muted, suggesting that fundamental supply-demand factors remain the primary concern.

“From a supply perspective, the oil market remains packed with barrels. According to the latest data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), global crude supply continues to outpace consumption growth, pushing inventories higher and maintaining downward pressure on prices,” she said.

Market participants surveyed by Reuters in December expect oil prices to remain under pressure in 2026 due to growing supply and weak demand.

Price pressure could be exacerbated by the U.S. arrest of Venezuela’s leader on Saturday, increasing the likelihood of an end to U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil and potentially leading to higher output.

Maduro pleaded not guilty in a New York court on Monday to narcotics trafficking charges.

The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump plans to meet with U.S. oil executives this week to discuss boosting Venezuelan oil production, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters.

“I think if even part of the Trump playbook comes to pass, Venezuelan crude oil production should increase… If it does, there will be more pressure on an already oversupplied market,” said Ed Meir, analyst at Marex.

Venezuela is a founding member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and holds the world’s largest oil reserves at about 303 billion barrels. However, its oil sector has long been in decline due to underinvestment and U.S. sanctions.

Its average output last year was 1.1 million barrels per day.

Oil analysts said Venezuelan production could increase by up to half a million barrels per day over the next two years with political stability and U.S. investment.

However, ANZ Research noted that they view heightened levels of political instability as the more likely scenario, and that a significant injection of capital would be required to boost output beyond Venezuela’s current effective capacity.