{"id":9934,"date":"2024-02-26T10:39:35","date_gmt":"2024-02-26T10:39:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/roydadnaft.ir\/English\/?p=9934"},"modified":"2024-02-26T10:39:35","modified_gmt":"2024-02-26T10:39:35","slug":"goldman-sachs-lifts-its-brent-summer-peak-forecast-to-87-a-barrel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/roydadnaft.ir\/English\/9934\/","title":{"rendered":"Goldman Sachs lifts its Brent summer peak forecast to $87 a barrel"},"content":{"rendered":"

RoydadNaft – <\/a><\/span>\u00a0Goldman Sachs raised its summer 2024 Brent peak forecast by $2 a barrel to $87 as disruptions in the Red Sea contribute to modestly larger-than-expected draws in OECD commercial stocks, the bank said in a note dated Sunday.<\/p>\n

“OECD commercial stocks on land have drawn somewhat faster than expected as the redirection of flows away from the Red Sea has increased inventories on water.”<\/p>\n

Despite the Red Sea escalation, Goldman expects Brent to stay in the $70-90 range, noting that the muted price volatility despite the ongoing Middle East and Ukraine wars reflected a modest geopolitical risk premium.<\/p>\n

The elevated spare capacity would allow OPEC+ to offset disruptions in most scenarios, while robust non-OPEC supply growth is likely to nearly keep pace with solid global demand growth, Goldman said.<\/p>\n

The bank continues to project oil demand growth at 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, with a downgrade in China demand balanced by upgrades in India and the United States.<\/p>\n

Goldman also expects OPEC+ policymakers to announce an extension of output cuts in early March to keep the market in a moderate deficit, which it sees at 0.5 million bpd in the first quarter and 0.4 million bpd in the second quarter.<\/p>\n

The bank still expects full extensions of the OPEC+ cuts through the second quarter of this year, followed by a gradual and partial phase-out of the latest package starting third quarter.<\/p>\n

Goldman forecasts Brent to average $80 in 2025, while a sustained drop below $70 would likely require both much weaker demand and a shift in Saudi strategy, which seems unlikely based on Saudi economic incentives, it added.<\/p>\n

Brent crude futures fell 35 cents to $81.27 a barrel by 0417 GMT in Asian trading hours, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) declined 33 cents to $76.13 a barrel.<\/p>\n

Updated on