{"id":9767,"date":"2024-02-09T11:06:40","date_gmt":"2024-02-09T11:06:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/roydadnaft.ir\/English\/?p=9767"},"modified":"2024-02-09T11:06:40","modified_gmt":"2024-02-09T11:06:40","slug":"9767","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/roydadnaft.ir\/English\/9767\/","title":{"rendered":""},"content":{"rendered":"

RoydadNaft – <\/a><\/span>\u00a0The Biden administration wants to tighten the screws on Iran\u2019s oil sales to neutralize its support for militants in the Middle East. But squeezing too hard risks inflicting higher prices on both a sluggish global economy and President Joe Biden\u2019s looming election rematch with Donald Trump.<\/p>\n

The White House aims to strengthen enforcement of existing sanctions as the regional crisis worsens, according to people familiar with the situation, although it\u2019s aware missteps risk disrupting global oil markets.<\/p>\n

Solving this dilemma has become a priority given Iran\u2019s support in Gaza for Hamas \u2014 which started a war with Israel \u2014 and in Yemen for the Houthis \u2014 who are disrupting global trade \u2014 as well as other groups harassing US forces in the region. The situation escalated late last month with the killing of three US soldiers in an Iran-linked attack, leading Biden to strike related targets in Iraq and Syria and vow further actions.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe administration has a desire to tighten sanctions enforcement on Iran,\u201d said Ali Vaez, project director for Iran at the International Crisis Group. \u201cBut it doesn\u2019t necessarily have the means because of political and geopolitical limitations.\u201d<\/p>\n

Those challenges include persuading other major producers, particularly Saudi Arabia, to prevent oil prices from moving higher. The kingdom rebuffed a plea from Biden for more oil in 2022 and more recently led OPEC output cuts. China, the leading buyer of Iranian oil, also has little incentive to help Washington given it\u2019s the world\u2019s biggest oil importer and a top strategic competitor.<\/p>\n

A bipartisan group of lawmakers in the US has urged Biden to crack down by using existing sanctions on ships, ports and refineries that handle Iranian oil. Such tough action risks pushing up prices and hurting consumers, a political problem for Biden ahead of the November election.<\/p>\n

So far this year, oil prices have fluctuated in a narrow $10 band, with traders seeing the market in balance even amid risks in the Middle East, a deep freeze that knocked out chunks of US production and a relatively sanguine outlook for global economic growth this year, despite a lackluster performance by China.<\/p>\n

Options the White House is considering include targeting vessels that carry Iranian crude or even punishing some of the countries that buy it or facilitate shipments, said one of the people, who asked not to be identified describing internal deliberations.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe United States continues to hold Iran accountable for their escalatory actions by enforcing our sanctions and conducting maritime interdictions,\u201d Adrienne Watson, a spokesperson for the White House National Security Council, said in a statement. \u201cWe will continue to take action to disrupt Iran\u2019s ability to fund terrorist elements in the region.\u201d The Treasury Department declined to comment.<\/p>\n

The State Department said the sanctions regime has forced nearly all of Iran\u2019s oil sales onto the black market, increasing the operational costs and reducing the profits available to Tehran.<\/p>\n

Iranian exports have steadily climbed as Washington\u2019s focus shifted to throttling Russia\u2019s energy revenue, an effort along with Group of Seven allies to dislodge President Vladimir Putin\u2019s troops from Ukraine. Their main tool has been a price \u201ccap\u201d on sales of Russian oil, a novel, if imperfect, approach aimed at cutting oil proceeds to Moscow while still keeping global markets supplied.<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s exports of crude and condensates, a light form of oil produced along with natural gas, averaged about 1.4 million barrels per day last year, according to data from TankerTrackers.com Inc.<\/p>\n

A senior administration official said that exports would be more than 2.5 million barrels per day without current US sanctions enforcement, and that the US can tighten and ease sanctions as needed.<\/p>\n

Many traders and analysts saw signs of such easing over the past year, as Iran\u2019s exports rose amid secret diplomacy between Washington and Tehran over prisoner swaps and frozen assets. Sales to China, which has rejected the US sanctions and is estimated to buy the majority of Iran\u2019s exports, rose to the highest in a decade last August.<\/p>\n

Read more: For Global Oil Markets, a US-Iran Deal Is Already Happening<\/p>\n

Everything changed Oct. 7, when Iran-backed Hamas attacked Israel, setting off a war in Gaza that\u2019s rallied other groups across the region that are part of the so-called Axis of Resistance backed by Tehran.<\/p>\n

Since then, US officials including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Secretary of State Antony Blinken have said the US has the ability to punish Iran.<\/p>\n

Observers are skeptical, saying past rhetoric from the White House about stepped-up enforcement hasn\u2019t been followed by meaningful action.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere are no indications that the Biden administration is about to change what has been a very consistent policy of prioritizing Iranian oil flows over tightening Iranian oil sanctions,\u201d said Scott Modell, chief executive officer of Rapidan Energy Group.<\/p>\n

And even if Washington did try to tighten sanctions, it would struggle to disrupt an expanded network of payments, middlemen and shippers that has emerged in recent years. Similar issues, including a \u201cshadow\u201d fleet of old oil tankers, have helped Russia dent the impact of the US-led price cap efforts.<\/p>\n

Read More: Why the US Can\u2019t Stop Iran\u2019s Lucrative Oil Trade With China<\/p>\n

One way to slow exports is to start targeting individual ships that carry the oil, said Claire Jungman, chief of staff at United Against Nuclear Iran.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere are 360-plus vessels currently traveling the waters right now transporting Iranian oil and 90% of those are not sanctioned,\u201d said Jungman. \u201cStarting with sanctioning the vessels would have a huge impact.\u201d<\/p>\n

At this point, the best the US can hope to achieve is a reduction of 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day, via a crackdown on way stations for Iranian oil, said Vaez of the International Crisis Group.<\/p>\n

Beyond the oil markets, officials could use secondary sanctions on banks in the United Arab Emirates and Turkey that help Iran fund militias, said Kim Donovan, a former Treasury official and the director of the economic statecraft initiative at the Atlantic Council.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have a range of tools that we just really have not been enforcing very much over the past couple of years,\u201d Donovan said in an interview. \u201cNow that things are starting to escalate in the region again, I think we need to turn more attention back to Iran.\u201d<\/p>\n

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