{"id":7792,"date":"2023-09-21T12:57:30","date_gmt":"2023-09-21T12:57:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/roydadnaft.ir\/English\/?p=7792"},"modified":"2023-09-21T12:57:30","modified_gmt":"2023-09-21T12:57:30","slug":"china-gas-demand-seen-up-8-on-economic-recovery-easing-fuel-cost-cnooc-research","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/roydadnaft.ir\/English\/7792\/","title":{"rendered":"China gas demand seen up 8% on economic recovery, easing fuel cost – CNOOC research"},"content":{"rendered":"

RoydadNaft – <\/a><\/span>\u00a0China’s natural gas demand this year is expected to grow by 8% from 2022, an analyst from state-owned oil major CNOOC’s research division said, a pace higher than analysts’ forecasts on the back of cooling gas prices and China’s economic recovery.<\/p>\n

Xie Xuguang, from CNOOC Gas and Power Group’s research centre, told a conference on Thursday that China’s total gas demand may reach 396.4 billion cubic metres (bcm) this year.<\/p>\n

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Imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are expected to reach 70.79 million metric tons this year, up 10.9% from last year, while those of pipeline gas is seen reaching 69.5 bcm, 10.7% above the 2022 level, Xie said.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The CNOOC forecast for demand growth is higher than that of three other analysts and comes after a rare decline in 2022, when Chinese gas demand slipped 1% amid rigid COVID-19 controls and saw China cede its top LNG importer ranking to Japan.<\/p>\n

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The growth is driven by China’s economic recovery and cooling global LNG prices, Xie pointed out.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

“We’re expecting industrial gas demand to recover in the second half. And the normalising global gas prices are also going to stimulate demand,” Xie said.<\/p>\n

Gas demand growth this year was seen at between 5.7% and 7.4%, according to estimates this week by ICIS, Energy Aspects and SIA Energy.<\/p>\n

China’s total gas demand was forecast to peak in 2040 at 700 bcm, Xie added, echoing a previous forecast by state major Sinopec.<\/p>\n

Part of that growth was met by domestic production, which the CNOOC research team predicted rising 4.6% over 2023 to 227.8 bcm.<\/p>\n

Imports of both piped gas and liquefied natural gas were both expected to increase to meet rising domestic demand.<\/p>\n

The country’s LNG receiving capacity, seen at 139.3 million tons annually by the end of 2023, is expected to expand to 181.8 million tons by 2025, Xie said.<\/p>\n

To cope with “extreme situations”, CNOOC proposed the country build at least 15 bcm of emergency LNG reserves by 2025 and a 25 bcm stockpile for 2030.<\/p>\n

At 15 bcm, that would represent roughly 12% of China’s total imports of the superchilled fuel by 2025, or 3.4% of the national gas demand.<\/p>\n

Xie noted that most of 11% growth in piped gas imports would come from Russia’s East Siberian fields via the Power of Siberia pipeline.<\/p>\n

Imports of Russian piped gas had jumped 54% over the course of 2022, as Russia continues to make deliveries through the Power of Siberia which is expected to reach\u00a0full capacity\u00a0of 38 bcm annually by 2027.<\/p>\n

CNOOC noted that China’s dependence on foreign imports was likely to increase in the coming years, with imports of LNG and piped gas expected to account for 46% of domestic demand in 2025 and 49% of domestic demand by 2035.<\/p>\n

Updated on