{"id":4432,"date":"2023-03-23T14:29:27","date_gmt":"2023-03-23T14:29:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/roydadnaft.ir\/English\/?p=4432"},"modified":"2023-03-23T14:29:29","modified_gmt":"2023-03-23T14:29:29","slug":"woodmac-oil-prices-could-surprise-to-the-upside-with-chinas-reopening","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/roydadnaft.ir\/English\/4432\/","title":{"rendered":"WoodMac: Oil Prices Could Surprise To The Upside With China\u2019s Reopening"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"entry-content\" itemprop=\"description\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Wood Mackenzie believes China\u2019s economic growth could exceed expectations and spark a surge in energy commodity prices.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>China\u2019s GDP growth has outperformed expectations in 12 of the past 18 years, and oil prices will be the big winner if that happens again.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>While commodity prices are unlikely to return to the extreme highs of 2022, Wood Mackenzie sees plenty of upside for energy prices this year.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>China\u2019s economic growth could exceed official targets and consumer mobility and spending could surge after the reopening to super-charge a renewed increase in energy commodity prices, especially crude oil, Wood Mackenzie said in a new&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.woodmac.com\/horizons\/china-reopening-means-for-global-energy-markets\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">report<\/a>&nbsp;on Thursday. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cOur scenario is bullish for all commodities. Finely balanced markets for oil, LNG, and coal are leveraged to a super-charged Chinese bounce,\u201d WoodMac\u2019s analysts wrote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Crude oil will be a big winner of the Chinese reopening, with prices set to increase, they noted. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>China has a history of over-delivering on its economic growth targets, with GDP growth outpacing government forecasts in 12 of the past 18 years, according to WoodMac. The consultancy ran two scenarios for China\u2019s reopening \u2013 a base-case scenario with 5.5% growth and a high-growth scenario with growth at 7% this year. The high-grow scenario is far from certain, but given China\u2019s history of under-promising and over-delivering, it cannot be easily discounted, the consultancy said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cDepending on its consumers\u2019 appetite to spend and the ambition of government policy, China\u2019s reopening could once again turn up the heat on prices across the energy and natural resources spectrum,\u201d it added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Under WoodMac\u2019s base-case scenario, Chinese oil demand would rise by 1 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, driving the expected 2.6-million-bpd growth in global oil consumption. Barring a significant recession, WoodMac sees\u00a0Brent Crude\u00a0rising from current levels to average $89.40 a barrel for 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In a high-growth scenario, the world\u2019s top crude oil importer could see oil demand jumping by 1.4 million bpd on the year, or about 400,000 bpd higher than in the base case, driving up oil prices by another $3-$5 per barrel compared to the base case. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cAs the Chinese economy reopens, commodity prices will not return to the extreme highs of 2022,\u201d WoodMac\u2019s analysts said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cBut energy and natural resource markets remain finely balanced and commodity prices could yet surprise to the upside this year.\u201d &nbsp;<\/p>\n<div class=\"post-date no-social-btn post-updated\">Updated on<time class=\"updated dt-updated\" itemprop=\"dateModified\" datetime=\"2023-03-23T14:29:29+00:00\"> 23 March 2023<\/time><\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"China\u2019s economic growth could exceed official targets and consumer mobility and spending could surge after the reopening to super-charge a renewed increase in energy commodity prices, especially crude oil, Wood Mackenzie said in a new&nbsp;report&nbsp;on Thursday. &nbsp; \u201cOur scenario is bullish for all commodities. Finely balanced markets for oil, LNG, and coal are leveraged to [&hellip;]","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4433,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[17,36,19,16],"tags":[],"services":[],"class_list":["post-4432","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","category-lastnews","category-news","category-oil"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/roydadnaft.ir\/English\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4432","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/roydadnaft.ir\/English\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/roydadnaft.ir\/English\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/roydadnaft.ir\/English\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/roydadnaft.ir\/English\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4432"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/roydadnaft.ir\/English\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4432\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/roydadnaft.ir\/English\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4433"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/roydadnaft.ir\/English\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4432"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/roydadnaft.ir\/English\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4432"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/roydadnaft.ir\/English\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4432"},{"taxonomy":"services","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/roydadnaft.ir\/English\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/services?post=4432"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}