{"id":4285,"date":"2023-03-16T14:24:02","date_gmt":"2023-03-16T14:24:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/roydadnaft.ir\/English\/?p=4285"},"modified":"2023-03-16T14:24:04","modified_gmt":"2023-03-16T14:24:04","slug":"us-natgas-gains-on-short-covering-ahead-of-storage-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/roydadnaft.ir\/English\/4285\/","title":{"rendered":"US natgas gains on short-covering ahead of storage report"},"content":{"rendered":"
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U.S. natural gas futures rose on Thursday as investors covered short positions ahead of a weekly inventory report, but gains were limited by forecasts for less cold weather over the next two weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Front-month gas futures for April delivery rose 5.2 cents, or 2.1%, to settle at $2.491 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“It’s primarily driven by short covering from yesterday’s sell off ahead of today’s storage report,” said Robert DiDona of Energy Ventures Analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even though prices have been moving in small increments, “this is much less volatility than what we’ve been used to in the natural gas market,” Didona added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly storage report at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) later today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts forecast U.S. utilities pulled just 62 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended March 10. That compares with a decrease of 866 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average decline of 77 bcf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If correct, last week’s decrease would cut stockpiles to 1.968 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 36% above the five-year average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Utilities have left more gas in storage than usual due to milder winter weather so far this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Data provider Refinitiv estimated 281 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks, down from 300 HDDs estimated on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

HDDs estimate demand to heat homes and businesses by measuring the number of degrees a day’s average temperature is below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would slide from 120.5 bcfd this week to 117.8 bcfd next week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Federal regulators approved the restart of two of Freeport LNG’s three liquefaction trains (Trains 2 and 3) in February and the third train (Train 1) on March 8. Liquefaction trains turn gas into LNG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gas flows to LNG export plants have been on track to hit record highs since Freeport LNG’s export plant in Texas exited an eight-month outage in February. The plant was shut due to a fire in June 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When operating at full power, Freeport LNG, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, can turn about 2.1 bcfd of gas into LNG for export.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The seven big U.S. LNG export plants, including Freeport LNG, can turn about 13.8 bcfd of gas into LNG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/tr><\/thead>
<\/td>Week ended Mar 10 (Forecast)<\/td>Week ended Mar 3 (Actual)<\/td>Year ago Mar 10<\/td>Five-year average Mar 10<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):<\/td>-62<\/td>-84<\/td>-86<\/td>-74<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):<\/td>1,968<\/td>2,030<\/td>1,451<\/td>1,594<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average<\/td>23%<\/td>21.5%<\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/tr>
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)<\/td>Current Day<\/td>Prior Day<\/td>This Month Last Year<\/td>Prior Year Average 2022<\/td>Five Year Average (2018-2022)<\/td><\/tr>
Henry Hub<\/td>2.49<\/td>2.54<\/td>4.98<\/td>6.54<\/td>3.60<\/td><\/tr>
Title Transfer Facility (TTF)<\/td>13.55<\/td>13.99<\/td>41.81<\/td>40.50<\/td>14.39<\/td><\/tr>
Japan Korea Marker (JKM)<\/td>12.99<\/td>14.2<\/td>36.96<\/td>34.11<\/td>14.31<\/td><\/tr>
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days<\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/tr>
Two-Week Total Forecast<\/td>Current Day<\/td>Prior Day<\/td>Prior Year<\/td>10-Year Norm<\/td>30-Year Norm<\/td><\/tr>
U.S. GFS HDDs<\/td>281<\/td>300<\/td>222<\/td>250<\/td>256<\/td><\/tr>
U.S. GFS CDDs<\/td>9<\/td>9<\/td>16<\/td>19<\/td>15<\/td><\/tr>
U.S. GFS TDDs<\/td>290<\/td>309<\/td>238<\/td>269<\/td>271<\/td><\/tr>
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts<\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>Prior Week<\/td>Current Week<\/td>Next Week<\/td>This Week Last Year<\/td>Five-Year Average For Month<\/td><\/tr>
U.S. Supply (bcfd)<\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/tr>
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production<\/td>98.8<\/td>98.6<\/td>98.8<\/td>93.3<\/td>89.4<\/td><\/tr>
U.S. Imports from Canada<\/td>7.8<\/td>7.7<\/td>7.9<\/td>9.2<\/td>8.6<\/td><\/tr>
U.S. LNG Imports<\/td>0.0<\/td>0.0<\/td>0.0<\/td>0.0<\/td>0.1<\/td><\/tr>
Total U.S. Supply<\/td>106.5<\/td>106.3<\/td>106.7<\/td>102.5<\/td>99.1<\/td><\/tr>
U.S. Demand (bcfd)<\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/tr>
U.S. Exports to Canada<\/td>3.1<\/td>2.7<\/td>2.7<\/td>3.4<\/td>3.0<\/td><\/tr>
U.S. Exports to Mexico<\/td>5.5<\/td>5.6<\/td>5.4<\/td>5.6<\/td>5.2<\/td><\/tr>
U.S. LNG Exports<\/td>13.2<\/td>13.1<\/td>13.6<\/td>12.7<\/td>7.4<\/td><\/tr>
U.S. Commercial<\/td>12.7<\/td>14.0<\/td>13.3<\/td>12.2<\/td>12.4<\/td><\/tr>
U.S. Residential<\/td>20.2<\/td>22.3<\/td>21.1<\/td>18.6<\/td>19.6<\/td><\/tr>
U.S. Power Plant<\/td>30.9<\/td>30.8<\/td>29.8<\/td>25.1<\/td>25.7<\/td><\/tr>
U.S. Industrial<\/td>23.6<\/td>24.3<\/td>24.3<\/td>23.2<\/td>23.6<\/td><\/tr>
U.S. Plant Fuel<\/td>4.9<\/td>4.9<\/td>4.9<\/td>4.9<\/td>4.9<\/td><\/tr>
U.S. Pipe Distribution<\/td>2.5<\/td>2.6<\/td>2.6<\/td>2.6<\/td>2.6<\/td><\/tr>
U.S. Vehicle Fuel<\/td>0.1<\/td>0.1<\/td>0.1<\/td>0.1<\/td>0.1<\/td><\/tr>
Total U.S. Consumption<\/td>94.8<\/td>99.1<\/td>96.1<\/td>86.7<\/td>88.9<\/td><\/tr>
Total U.S. Demand<\/td>116.6<\/td>120.5<\/td>117.8<\/td>108.4<\/td>104.5<\/td><\/tr>
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel – EIA<\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/tr>
<\/td>Week ended Mar 17<\/td>Week ended Mar 10<\/td>Week ended Mar 3<\/td>Week ended Feb 24<\/td>Week ended Feb 17<\/td><\/tr>
Wind<\/td>14<\/td>12<\/td>13<\/td>15<\/td>15<\/td><\/tr>
Solar<\/td>4<\/td>3<\/td>3<\/td>3<\/td>3<\/td><\/tr>
Hydro<\/td>6<\/td>7<\/td>7<\/td>7<\/td>7<\/td><\/tr>
Other<\/td>2<\/td>2<\/td>2<\/td>2<\/td>2<\/td><\/tr>
Petroleum<\/td>0<\/td>0<\/td>0<\/td>0<\/td>0<\/td><\/tr>
Natural Gas<\/td>38<\/td>41<\/td>40<\/td>39<\/td>37<\/td><\/tr>
Coal<\/td>17<\/td>16<\/td>15<\/td>14<\/td>15<\/td><\/tr>
Nuclear<\/td>19<\/td>20<\/td>20<\/td>20<\/td>21<\/td><\/tr>
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)<\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/tr>
Hub<\/td>Current Day<\/td>Prior Day<\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/tr>
Henry Hub<\/td>2.45<\/td>2.64<\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/tr>
Transco Z6 New York<\/td>2.27<\/td>2.61<\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/tr>
PG&E Citygate<\/td>6.93<\/td>6.92<\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/tr>
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South)<\/td>2.39<\/td>2.39<\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/tr>
Chicago Citygate<\/td>2.15<\/td>2.45<\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/tr>
Algonquin Citygate<\/td>2.48<\/td>3.15<\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/tr>
SoCal Citygate<\/td>8.15<\/td>7.35<\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/tr>
Waha Hub<\/td>1.44<\/td>1.25<\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/tr>
AECO<\/td>3.02<\/td>3.13<\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/tr>
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)<\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/tr>
Hub<\/td>Current Day<\/td>Prior Day<\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/tr>
New England<\/td>36.50<\/td>37.25<\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/tr>
PJM West<\/td>29.50<\/td>32.50<\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/tr>
Ercot North<\/td>17.25<\/td>15.75<\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/tr>
Mid C<\/td>101.25<\/td>105.50<\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/tr>
Palo Verde<\/td>47.75<\/td>85.50<\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/tr>
SP-5<\/td>65.00<\/td>93.00<\/td><\/td><\/td><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n
Updated on