{"id":2152,"date":"2022-10-28T16:47:23","date_gmt":"2022-10-28T16:47:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/roydadnaft.ir\/English\/?p=2152"},"modified":"2022-10-28T16:47:27","modified_gmt":"2022-10-28T16:47:27","slug":"opec-expects-oil-demand-will-rise-until-2035","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/roydadnaft.ir\/English\/2152\/","title":{"rendered":"OPEC Expects Oil Demand Will Rise Until 2035"},"content":{"rendered":"
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OPEC is likely to maintain its view world oil demand will rise for another decade, longer than many other forecasters predict, in a forthcoming major report, despite the growing role of renewables and electric cars, two OPEC sources said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is scheduled to update its long-term oil demand forecasts in its\u00a02022 World Oil Outlook\u00a0on Oct. 31. The 2021 version sees oil demand reaching a plateau after 2035.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another decade or more of oil demand growth would be a boost for producers and OPEC, whose 13 members depend on oil income, and would justify continued investment in new supplies. Consumers and governments urging efforts to curb oil use to combat climate change would be less happy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

OPEC made a shift in 2020 when the pandemic hit demand, saying it would eventually slow after years of predicting ever-increasing consumption. The latest update is likely to keep OPEC among the more bullish forecasters of oil demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt is similar to last year in terms of the demand outlook,\u201d one of the OPEC sources said on condition of anonymity. The second source said OPEC has not brought forward its timeline for when plateau demand is forecast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other predictions see oil demand peaking earlier. TotalEngergies has forecast this will take place before 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The International Energy Agency on Thursday for the first time in its history of modeling said demand for all fossil fuels was set to peak, with oil demand leveling off in the middle of the next decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

OPEC\u2019s Vienna headquarters declined to answer questions ahead of the publication\u2019s launch on Monday in Abu Dhabi that will be attended by OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais and other OPEC officials.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another OPEC source said Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine \u2013 which has sent oil and gas prices soaring and led to an energy crisis \u2013 could boost oil demand in the near term due to fuel switching, as could the ongoing recovery from the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt is expected that oil and gas will remain as the dominant fuels in the world\u2019s energy mix until the middle of the century,\u201d this source said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

INCREASED PROJECTION?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last year, OPEC saw oil demand reaching 108.2 million barrels per day in 2045, up from 90.6 million bpd in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The group steadily lowered the 2045 projection over the last few years, citing changes to consumer behavior brought about by the pandemic and competition from electric cars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By contrast, this year OPEC is expected to increase the 2045 demand forecast, two sources said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two former OPEC officials, however, cited longer-term trends that will weigh on demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEven oil-producing countries are interested in electrification because of pollution,\u201d said Hasan Qabazard, OPEC\u2019s head of research from 2006 to 2013, and a Kuwaiti. \u201cIn Kuwait, people are starting to buy electric cars.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Qabazard last year said demand could peak within a decade but maybe later and maintains that view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A former OPEC minister said the longer-term implications of the Ukraine war could encourage the shift towards renewables.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe war in Ukraine has changed Europe and the United States\u2019 reliance on Russia\u2019s oil and gas,\u201d said Chakib Khelil, a former Algerian oil minister and OPEC president. \u201cEurope will rely more and more on renewable energy in the future and less on oil and gas from Russia.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He added that it was \u201chighly probable\u201d demand could plateau earlier than expected in the current OPEC forecast.<\/p>\n

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