{"id":16433,"date":"2025-12-21T05:40:24","date_gmt":"2025-12-21T05:40:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/roydadnaft.ir\/English\/?p=16433"},"modified":"2025-12-21T05:40:24","modified_gmt":"2025-12-21T05:40:24","slug":"india-emerges-as-the-leading-driver-of-global-oil-demand-pushing-peak-beyond-2030","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/roydadnaft.ir\/English\/16433\/","title":{"rendered":"India Emerges as the Leading Driver of Global Oil Demand, Pushing Peak Beyond 2030"},"content":{"rendered":"

RoydadNaft – <\/a><\/span>\u00a0After years of predictions pointing to an early peak in global oil demand, 2025 brought a major reassessment, with oil and gas holding a stronger position amid geopolitical tensions, slower renewable energy rollout, and steady consumption growth driven primarily by India.<\/p>\n

This year\u2019s major energy outlooks\u2014from global agencies and consultancies\u2014shifted peak oil demand projections into the 2030s and raised long-term forecasts. A key takeaway across these reports: India is set to lead global oil demand growth over the next decade, surpassing China and Southeast Asia combined.<\/p>\n

The change stems from delayed renewable deployment, infrastructure bottlenecks, and ongoing conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war, which kept Europe reliant on fossil fuels amid supply disruptions and elevated prices. In the US, supportive policies bolstered oil and gas production.<\/p>\n

In India, 2025 highlighted surging demand, shifting trade patterns, and regulatory updates. The country stayed heavily dependent on imported crude, with Russian oil holding a substantial share despite Western pressure.<\/p>\n

Trade and Policy Shifts<\/p>\n

For much of the year, Russian crude accounted for over a third of India\u2019s imports, fueling refineries that serve both domestic needs and exports. Despite US calls to cut purchases\u2014including a 50% tariff on Indian goods\u2014imports only dropped significantly after fresh sanctions hit major Russian exporters in late November.<\/p>\n

Post-sanctions, Russian crude flows fell from 1.7\u20131.8 million barrels per day to under 1 million bpd. Since the oil itself wasn\u2019t directly sanctioned, refiners continued sourcing from non-sanctioned suppliers, so a full stop is unlikely.<\/p>\n

India also diversified its supply, boosting US crude imports and expanding trade in LNG and LPG to reduce reliance on any single source.<\/p>\n

Domestically, the government introduced the Petroleum and Natural Gas Rules, 2025, streamlining licensing to attract more investment in exploration and production.<\/p>\n

Oil demand growth stayed robust, with India outpacing China as the world\u2019s fastest-growing major oil market. Refining capacity continued to expand, cementing India\u2019s status as a global refining powerhouse, even as domestic production faced challenges from maturing fields.<\/p>\n

Natural gas use also climbed, driven by pipeline growth and city gas networks, in line with efforts to promote cleaner fuels.<\/p>\n

Oil prices remained remarkably stable in 2025\u2014one of the calmest years in recent memory\u2014with Brent crude mostly trading in the low $60s to low $70s per barrel, dipping to around $59\u201360 by mid-December. This stability held despite wars, sanctions, tariffs, and shipping issues, thanks to rising non-OPEC supply, OPEC+ discipline, and subdued demand in key economies.<\/p>\n

For India, the steady prices created fiscal breathing room, enabling excise duty hikes on petrol and diesel without raising retail prices.<\/p>\n

As 2025 ends, the oil and gas sector faces an uncertain future shaped by geopolitical risks, evolving demand trends, and climate goals\u2014yet India\u2019s growing influence in global energy markets remains a defining factor heading into 2026.<\/p>\n

Updated on