{"id":16350,"date":"2025-12-12T07:00:47","date_gmt":"2025-12-12T07:00:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/roydadnaft.ir\/English\/?p=16350"},"modified":"2025-12-12T07:00:47","modified_gmt":"2025-12-12T07:00:47","slug":"iea-slashes-2026-global-oil-surplus-forecast-stronger-economy-fuels-demand-surge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/roydadnaft.ir\/English\/16350\/","title":{"rendered":"IEA Slashes 2026 Global Oil Surplus Forecast; Stronger Economy Fuels Demand Surge"},"content":{"rendered":"

RoydadNaft – <\/a><\/span>\u00a0The International Energy Agency (IEA) has cut its forecast for the global oil surplus in 2026 for the first time since May, trimming it to 3.84 million barrels per day\u2014a move driven by a brighter economic outlook boosting demand and sanctions curbing supply from Russia and Venezuela.<\/p>\n

With Brent crude\u2014down more than 15% in 2025\u2014trading below $62 a barrel on Thursday, the Paris-based agency lowered the surplus projection by 250,000 bpd from November\u2019s estimate. This still equates to about 4% of global demand and sits at the high end of analysts\u2019 predictions.<\/p>\n

Global supply has surged this year on output hikes from OPEC+, the U.S., and other producers, but the group has now paused increases for the first quarter of 2026. OPEC\u2019s monthly report, released simultaneously, held its global demand growth forecast steady, suggesting supply and demand will closely align in 2026\u2014contrasting the IEA\u2019s outlook.<\/p>\n

Oil Demand Rises as Tariff Fears Fade<\/p>\n

The IEA boosted its global oil demand growth projection for 2026 to 860,000 bpd\u2014up 90,000 bpd from last month\u2014and raised the 2025 estimate by 40,000 bpd to 830,000 bpd. \u201cFalling oil prices and the U.S. dollar, both near four-year lows, provide further tailwinds for next year\u2019s demand,\u201d the agency noted. Growth in 2025 has come almost entirely from non-OECD countries, which are more sensitive to macroeconomic shifts.<\/p>\n

Recent U.S. trade deal breakthroughs have revived economic sentiment after early-year tariff tensions dented consumption.<\/p>\n

Sanctions Cripple Russian, Venezuelan Output<\/p>\n

The IEA now expects global supply growth in 2026 to hit 2.4 million bpd\u2014100,000 bpd below prior forecasts\u2014mainly due to sanction disruptions. OPEC+ production dropped 610,000 bpd in November, centered on Russia and Venezuela. Moscow\u2019s export revenues hit their lowest since the 2022 Ukraine invasion.<\/p>\n

Non-OPEC+ output forecasts remain unchanged, buoyed by gains in the Americas, including the U.S., Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina.<\/p>\n

The agency warned that \u201cparallel markets\u201d\u2014plentiful crude alongside tight fuels\u2014will persist, exacerbated by limited spare refining capacity outside China and EU bans on Russian crude-derived fuel exports.<\/p>\n

Updated on