{"id":14679,"date":"2025-07-04T06:05:16","date_gmt":"2025-07-04T06:05:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/roydadnaft.ir\/English\/?p=14679"},"modified":"2025-07-04T06:05:16","modified_gmt":"2025-07-04T06:05:16","slug":"cease-fire-brings-calm-to-oil-market-amid-complex-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/roydadnaft.ir\/English\/14679\/","title":{"rendered":"Cease-fire brings calm to oil market amid complex outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"

RoydadNaft – <\/a><\/span>\u00a0A spokesperson for Iran\u2019s Union of Exporters of Oil, Gas, and Petrochemical Products stated that the oil market is simultaneously influenced by fundamental factors, countries\u2019 economic conditions, and political developments.<\/p>\n

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The reduced likelihood of a Strait of Hormuz closure following the cease-fire has restored relative calm to the market. However, the future of oil prices remains tied to a complex and shifting set of variables.<\/div>\n
Hamid Hosseini, commenting on the oil market\u2019s reaction to the cease-fire between Iran and the Zionist regime, noted that oil prices are shaped by three key factors: fundamentals, economic conditions, and geopolitical developments.<\/div>\n
He explained that supply and demand are the primary drivers of oil prices, and currently, the market favors buyers, with global supply exceeding demand.<\/div>\n
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Daily oil production has reached 105 million barrels, while demand stands at around 103 million barrels, Hosseini said.<\/div>\n
He added that eight OPEC+ members have returned 411,000 barrels per day of previously cut production to the market over the past three months.<\/div>\n
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China, US economic reports cast shadow over oil market\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/div>\n
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Hosseini emphasized that economic reports\u2014particularly from China and the U.S.\u2014can sway oil prices. Markets are also awaiting US economic data and the Federal Reserve\u2019s interest rate decisions.<\/div>\n
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He noted that any political shift could reshape the oil market\u2019s outlook, while a weaker US dollar and declining US strategic reserves also play a role.<\/div>\n
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During the recent 12-day conflict that began June 13, oil prices fluctuated sharply. Prices initially hovered around $67 per barrel but surged to $79 following Zionist regime attacks on Iran, driven by fears of escalating tensions and supply disruptions.<\/div>\n
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US pressures producers to curb prices<\/strong><\/div>\n
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Hosseini pointed to US interventions, including Trump-era warnings to Russia and Saudi Arabia over rising oil prices, which pressured markets. New market mechanisms were also introduced to curb price hikes.<\/div>\n
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Oil-producing nations like Russia and Saudi Arabia typically prefer higher prices, but US pressure can compel cooperation, he said.<\/div>\n
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Following the cease-fire and reduced risks to Hormuz, prices fell to around $66 and are now trading near $67.<\/div>\n
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Oil market reacts to military developments<\/strong><\/div>\n
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Hosseini stressed that geopolitical and military events deeply impact oil markets, and the recent cease-fire has brought some stability. However, oil prices remain subject to multiple unpredictable factors.<\/div>\n
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Historically, markets have reacted inconsistently to conflicts\u2014prices spiked during the Iraq-Kuwait war but unexpectedly dropped during the US invasion of Iraq, he noted. This underscores the role of demand and behind-the-scenes deals in price movements.<\/div>\n
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Oil market reactions cannot be attributed to a single factor, Hosseini said, as national policies and market perceptions also shape prices. \u201cThe oil market is too complex for simple predictions and requires comprehensive analysis,\u201d he added.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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